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How is AI changing the global, geopolitical system?
Luca Sambucci
Q.
The change we're seeing today is nothing compared to what we will witness in the next 10-20 years. With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence, we are on the cusp of a new era where machines will increasingly take on cognitive tasks and make decisions once reserved for humans. This shift will have profound implications for the global, geopolitical system.
On a technological level, AI is already transforming how we live and work. It is powering everything from driverless cars to facial recognition technology and predictive analytics. But its impact will go far beyond that. As AI gets smarter and more widespread, people might use it to upend traditional power structures and create new ones.
Up until now, without AI at scale, centralised and authoritarian states didn’t have the means to fully process the wealth of data they so avidly collect and restrain. Without the ability to produce valuable insights and make optimal, real-time decisions, centralisation and the uneven concentration of power were major weaknesses of dictatorships, resulting in sluggish economies, much more isolated and fragile compared to democratic states, where the distribution of power is spread among many actors.
For the first time in history, however, AI could enable these centralised power structures to make sense of the massive amount of data they collect, granting them insights nobody else in the country has access to. As we know, AI thrives where there is an abundance of data. Countries with large, well-organised populations and data sets will be better equipped to develop and deploy AI than those without. This newly found ‘edge’ could lead to a further concentration of power in highly centralised states.
We are already seeing this happen in China, where the government is using AI to track its citizens, control information, and shape public opinion. We are starting to see this in Russia as well, where, for example, facial recognition is being actively used in the Moscow metro system for similar purposes. The lack of a strong culture of privacy in authoritarian countries allows for the rapid creation and continuous enrichment of massive data sets, that are then used to train several AI systems without any real challenge from privacy-conscious individuals and organisations. In the future, AI could give these countries even more control and influence, both domestically and internationally.
The rise of AI will also have major implications for the global economy. As machines become more efficient and capable, they will displace human workers in a wide range of industries. This could lead to mass unemployment and social unrest, as well as a further concentration of wealth in the hands of those who own the technology. And as AI gets better at completing tasks traditionally done by humans - from manufacturing to financial analysis - the economies that are able to harness its power will pull ahead of those who don't. The impact of AI will be felt in every sector of the economy, from transportation to healthcare. In the long run, AI could even lead to a fundamental restructuring of the global economy, enabling new business models and industries to emerge, as well as creating opportunities for those countries that possess enough flexibility (social, legal, economic) to adapt to the changing landscape.
Alas, AI will also change the nature of warfare. In the future, battles could be fought by autonomous weapons systems controlled by AI. This would make war even more deadly and destructive, and could lead to a new arms race between superpowers. We are already seeing some of these dynamics play out in the world today. Countries are jockeying for position in the global AI race, with China and the United States leading the way. The European Union is also making a major push to become a leader in AI, while Russia has been investing heavily in military applications of the technology.
The rise of AI will have far-reaching implications for the global, geopolitical system. It will change the balance of power between states, upend traditional economic models, and transform the nature of warfare. As we enter this new era, it is crucial that we think carefully about how to manage and regulate AI, in order to ensure that its impact is positive and beneficial for all.
"The impact of AI will be felt in every sector of the economy, from transportation to healthcare. "
Luca Sambucci is a Senior Director, Strategic Solutions at a leading US software company for Enterprise AI. Former Head of Artificial Intelligence for a Swiss consulting group specializing in exponential technologies, he holds a Business Analytics specialization from Wharton and an Artificial Intelligence Professional certification from IBM. He was also engaged as AI & cybersecurity advisor for EU organizations such as the Joint Research Centre and the European Defence Agency. The opinions expressed here belong solely to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of his employer or affiliates.
Luca Sambucci
"AI will rebalance the power between states, upend economic models, and transform the nature of warfare."
Senior Director, Strategic Solutions
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